The Chicago Bears are going to trade Justin Fields this offseason. He played well enough to keep his job at starting QB, but the NFL is a cold, unforgiving business. Why am I so sure about this? Let's start with the external factors. Drake Maye and Caleb Williams are two very impressive quarterback draft prospects, and it's not often that you get the opportunity to choose one. Also, I think the Bears will get trade offers from multiple teams interested in Fields this offseason. Keep in mind, the NFL is a copycat league and general managers are always looking to hop on the next trend. If Lamar Jackson, who you could say is the God-mode idealized version of Fields, wins his second MVP award and/or a Super Bowl this year, it only increases Fields' value. A trade may be too good to pass up. Internally, Bears' GM Ryan Poles and his staff will be thinking about self-preservation. Trading Fields and drafting a rookie QB will naturally take pressure off themselves to produce a winning team immediately. It's easier to excuse slow development from a first year QB than a 3rd or 4th year one.
Also, the contract structure comes into play. After 2023, Fields will only have one more season remaining on his rookie deal, then the 5th year rookie option. Whereas a rookie QB would be cost-controlled for 4 years plus an option, Field's would be cost-controlled for just one plus an option. Let's say the Bears keep Fields and opt to use the #1 draft pick on another position. If Fields plays well, he gets expensive quickly for the Bears. They would have to negotiate a lucrative contract extension probably comparable to Jalen Hurts or Kyler Murray's. That means Chicago would be paying over $40 Million average annual value as soon as 2026. With a rookie QB, they'd be looking at paying a quarter of that, with an option in 2028. Taking a rookie and trading Fields gives them much more flexibility and time to build out the team around their QB before committing to a second contract. To me, there is no doubt that they are going to trade Fields and take either Maye or Williams at 1. So here are some teams we could see making a trade for Justin Fields this offseason.
Qualities of a team that will be in the Fields market:
-Drafting outside of the Top 5 - The teams picking this high are too far away from contending to justify a Fields deal. They'd prefer to draft and develop a first round quarterback like Drake Maye, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix Jr, or take a chance on a QB early in the second round. For this reason, I think Washington and New England will not be calling Chicago about a trade. Instead, they'll be hoping Chicago opts to keep Fields and there'd be an opportunity to trade up from #2 to #1 or #3 to #1 to secure their favorite QB prospect.
-The team has some pressure to win now and is sick of shitty QB play - Some general managers have more job security than others. The guys with their backs against the wall are the ones who will feel pressure to make a big trade and bet on Justin Fields to reach his potential.
Jets
I love the idea of Fields on the Jets. They can right their wrongs from the 2021 Draft, when they passed on him for Zach Wilson. Incumbent QB Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old now and is currently more interested in private jets and Epstein island than New York Jets and Revis island. The current Jets' coaching/management regime will absolutely be fired if Rodgers gets injured again or fails to meet expectations in 2024. Bringing in Fields would mitigate that downside risk. If given the opportunity to start in New York, Fields' gravity in the run game could open up lanes for Breece Hall to make explosive plays. Fields also has existing chemistry with receiver Garrett Wilson from their Ohio State days. The Jets defense is also one of the best units in the league. This is a little bit outside the box, but I firmly believe this is the best place for Justin Fields to succeed. It would require some humility from the Jets' front office, but their record (and the QB play) the past 5 years should humble them.
Raiders
Last offseason, I lobbied for Las Vegas to trade up in the draft to take Anthony Richardson. It just seemed like the type of splashy move that is in owner Mark Davis' DNA. The Raiders' recent success under interim head coach Antonio Pierce has pushed them out of position to get one of the draft's top QBs, so they need to get creative to find a better option than Jimmy Garoppolo and Aidan O'Connell. A trade for Fields stands out as an attractive option for them. The Raiders are as committed to the run game as almost anyone, and even the biggest Fields hater would concede that he is a big time asset in that regard. Even if Vegas lets star back Josh Jacobs walk in free agency, the addition of Fields would improve their rushing attack. If I was a Raiders' decision maker, I would try to throw Jimmy G into this trade too. In a perfect world, they could throw the Bears an extra draft pick or two to take on (at least part of) his contract. I'd sell them on having a veteran backup QB for Drake Maye/Caleb Williams and bringing a kid from Chicago back home.
Broncos
The Broncos are definitely desperate to find a starting-caliber quarterback. The two-year Russell Wilson experience was a colossal disaster for them. Other than one magical Peyton Manning season, this entire decade of Denver football has been a farce featuring an ensemble cast of mediocre quarterbacks. I think head coach Sean Payton is creative enough to design an offense that plays to Fields' strengths. There are a couple of reasons I place them behind the Jets and the Raiders, though. First, they have been short on draft capital for the past two years thanks to the Russell Wilson trade. I'm sure they are hesitant to trade even more draft capital to acquire Fields. Second, in my opinion, they need more pieces outside of QB than the Jets and Raiders do to build a competitive roster. If Denver acquired Fields, would their upside be much different than the 2023 Bears? I don't think so. This Broncos squad needs a lot of work. I think they'll draft a rookie QB.
Falcons
The fit with Atlanta feels logical. Add Fields to one of the league's best rushing offenses and watch sparks fly. Atlanta has to be tired of shuffling through mediocre starting QB options since the end of the Mastt Ryan era. Head coach Arthur Smith, the antichrist of fantasy football, will face pressure to improve the team's results in 2024. Adding Fields could save his job and give Atlanta fans something to feel good about. Why rank them 4th here. It all comes down to contracts and team structure. If Fields succeeds in ATL and earns a second contract, the team would have to navigate extensions for him and TE Kyle Pitts at about the same time. Then, Drake London and Bijan Robinson would become expensive shortly after. To take full advantage of the core they're building, I believe the Falcons need to add a high upside QB on a rookie contract and add free agents on the defensive side of the ball to 3-4 year contracts. I see them opting for Jayden Daniels or Michael Penix Jr, over Fields.
Where will Justin Fields play next season?
0%Bears
0%Jets
0%Raiders
0%Broncos
Comments