Tuesday Baseball: NLDS Game 3s

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets - 5:08 PM ET

Series Tied, 1-1

PHI Starter: Aaron Nola 14-8, 3.57 ERA, 197 K

NYM Starter: Sean Manaea 12-6, 3.47 ERA, 184 K

I am predicting a divergence from the batshit craziness of Sunday's Game 2, which ended 7-6 in 10 innings. My reasoning here is that I don't trust the back half of the Phillies' lineup to make an impact against Manaea. Alec Bohm is still trying to find his rhythm. JT Realmuto has yet to record a hit in this series. Johan Rojas is known for his glove, not his bat. I think Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos, who carried this team to victory on Sunday, will need some help to earn the win tonight, but I have doubts about how much they will get from the rest of the squad. On the other side, I expect a well-rested Aaron Nola to come out and pitch well against the New York lineup. If the Phillies could just get 3B Mark Vientos out for a change (2 HRs, 4 RBIs last game) it would make a world of a difference. I think we are going to see the two starters go about 5 to 6 solid innings and keep the scoring to a minimum, then the Phils' bullpen will cost them yet again. I feel more confident in this prediction seeing how popular the "Over" is among the public, yet the markets have not shifted the total to a 7.5 or 8.

Pick: Full Game Under 7 Total Runs (-110)

Score Prediction: Mets 4 Phillies 2

Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres - 9:08 PM ET

Series Tied, 1-1

LAD Starter: Walker Buehler 1-6, 5.38 ERA, 64 K

SD Starter: Michael King 13-9, 2.95 ERA, 201 K

If you turned the clock back a couple of years, the Dodgers would have been thrilled to put Walker Buehler on the mound for a huge Game 3 on the road. Unfortunately, Buehler just isn't the pitcher he used to be. He's been hampered by injuries since 2021 (two Tommy John surgeries and a hip) and has struggled to find consistency since returning this season. In this one, I am looking at the "Over" in the first three innings. The Padres have exceeded this total in each of their 4 postseason games, and going against an iffy Buehler, I could see them doing it again. If the good version of Buehler shows up tonight, then the Dodgers' offense could be the squad to push the total over. The top of their lineup is just as potent as San Diego's, and it only takes one good inning to beat the number. As far as the winner of this game, I lean toward San Diego riding the momentum from their big Game 2 win and taking advantage of the starting pitching mismatch.

Pick: Over 2.5 Runs in First 3 Innings (+100)

Score Prediction: Padres 6 Dodgers 3