Lions vs. Packers
Pick: Lions -8.5
The Packers are 1-4 on the road this season and they got their asses kicked when they played Detroit in a prime time game on September 28. I believe the Dan Campbell era Lions take pride in beating down the Packers with a physical brand of football. Campbell has led Detroit to four straight victories over the Packers, which is just about unprecedented for a Lions head coach. Today, Detroit can make another strong statement that they are a legitimate contender in the NFC. They'll be helped by their home field advantage - Jared Goff plays at a much higher level from the comforts of home. Also, I think their pass rush is going to present problems to Green Bay again today. Love was sacked 5 times in the prior meeting. I think especially from the left side, where Aidan Hutchinson and Alim McNeil will be working against Zach Tom and Jon Runyan, the Lions can force pressure and get Love out of his comfort zone. With injuries to Aaron Jones and Luke Musgrave, the Packers will be missing two of their most reliable offensive players and they'll have to trust inconsistent guys like AJ Dillon and Christian Watson. I don't think that's gonna go well. I see a Lions victory of 27-16.
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Pick: Commanders +13.5
I think this is too many points to give Washington. We are overreacting to the Giants being a rough matchup for them, and we are overreacting to Dallas blowing out teams that I consider to be worse than the Commanders. Washington has been difficult to evaluate this season. They've looked semi-impressive at times, like their close loss to Seattle and two close losses to Philly. Sam Howell is a capable quarterback with solid weapons to throw to - Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas are all capable of making plays. They have two solid running backs in Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson. There's a ton of noise around this squad right now with coach Ron Rivera likely on the hot seat and them trading away Montez Sweat and Chase Young at the deadline. Yet, I think they can get motivated for this divisional matchup that the whole world will be watching. On the Cowboys' side, we have to see a letdown at some point. It's hard to blow out teams every single week by two plus possessions. I think Howell and the Washington offense will surprise us a bit during the Thanksgiving meal and keep pace until late in the 4th quarter in somewhat of a shootout. I'm predicting the Cowboys will win but Washington will cover. Let's say a 37-29 Cowboys win.
Seahawks vs. 49ers
Pick: Seahawks +7
It seems like everyone in the world in taking the Niners in this one, but I firmly believe Seattle has the ability to stay in the game. I think this is going to be a low-scoring, physical football game. On the Seattle side, I like that they're playing at home. We all know the "12th Man" is corny but it is a real homefield advantage. They are 5-1 at Lumen Field this season. Starting QB Geno Smith is looking likely to play through an elbow injury and starting RB Kenneth Walker is out. I actually like this for Seattle though, because I believe they will turn the keys of the offense over to rookie back Zach Charbonnet. Charbonnet has been very efficient in limited action this year. I believe the Seahawks will run the ball, take play action shots, and play tough defense and steal a win outright. The conversation on the San Francisco side afterward is going to return to whether Brock Purdy can lead them to their full potential. I'm predicting a 20-17 Seattle win on a late Jason Myers field goal.
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