Mitchell Trubisky, who is famously the 2020 Nickelodeon Valuable Player (NVP), a one-time Pro Bowl selection quarterback, and one of the best QBs in Bears' franchise history, is getting the start tonight for 7-5 Pittsburgh. All jokes aside, Mitch is actually the better starting QB tonight. The 2-10 Patriots, flailing toward a high draft pick and a Bill Belichick breakup, are once again turning to their backup, second year Bailey Zappe. The Pats haven't scored more than 17 points in a game since October 22 and they've lost 5 straight games. The Steelers are coming off a disappointing loss at home against James Conner and Arizona and they'll look to get back on the right track led by their old-school formula of defense and the run game. Pittsburgh are 5.5 point favorites and the over/under is set at a pitiful 30 points.
The Patriots' defense has been lights out, and it's all about their ability to stop the run. Last week, the held Austin Ekeler to just 18 yards on 12 carries. Pittsburgh has been leaning on backs Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren to move the ball on the ground. Najee is questionable for this game with a knee injury, so we may finally see what Warren can do with a higher volume of touches. I expect New England to make life very difficult for the Steelers on the ground - they are going to need to get creative to empower Warren's homerun ability. The Pats are, however, beatable in the pass game. They lack an elite pass rusher and they no longer have the shutdown corners they had in the past. The question is whether Trubisky can take advantage down-to-down. I have my doubts - I believe we are going to see the New England defense hold the Steelers' offense to under 17 points and (theoretically) have an opportunity to win.
The reason the Patriots won't win is their offensive line simply cannot and will not keep Zappe protected against the Pittsburgh defensive front. Michael Onwenu is overmatched playing right tackle. TJ Watt is going to eat his lunch - I expect 2+ sacks from him tonight. Zappe does not process quickly enough to succeed in the Pats' current situation, but I am not sure many QBs across the league would. I think we'll see Zappe move the ball down the field in small chunks at a time, so we'll see him target Hunter Henry and Zeke Elliot often in this one.
I see the Steelers winning this game by a score of 20-13. I believe they will score a touchdown on either defense or special teams and that will be the difference in the game. I can easily see a sack fumble or a Zappe interception going the other way and giving Pittsburgh a boost.
Predictions:
Steelers -5.5 (-110)
Over 30 Points (can't believe I'm saying this but I do think it gets there) (-110)
Pittsburgh Defense or Special Teams to Score Anytime (+600)
Ezekiel Elliot Over 2.5 Receptions (-135)
Ezekiel Elliot Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Bailey Zappe's Longest Completion To Be Under 30.5 Yards (-110)
Najee Harris Under 52.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
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