Texans vs. Jaguars
Pick: Jaguars -1.5
When these two teams met in Week 3, just about everything that could go wrong for the Jaguars went wrong. They fell behind 17-0 at halftime. They surrendered 145 yards to Houston rookie Tank Dell. Calvin Ridley dropped three passes. When they did narrow the deficit back to 17-10, they immediately gave up a bizarre kickoff return touchdown. I like Jacksonville to get revenge today. I think their defense, especially in the back end, has improved significantly since the September matchup. They'll do a better job containing big plays and forcing Houston to execute longer drives. On offense, I think they'll make a concerted effort to get Ridley and Christian Kirk easy targets and Trevor Lawrence will take advantage. The Texans hype is at an all time high right now, so this is the perfect spot for the Jags to quiet that narrative and assert themselves as kings of the AFC South. I see a 34-24 Jaguars win.
Bengals vs. Steelers
Pick: Steelers -2.5
This one isn't rocket science. I like the Steelers defense against a very unproven Bengals backup QB in Jake Browning. They've held their last six opponents to 20 points or less. I don't see Browning breaking that streak. That means Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh offense only needs to score about 17 points to win They've been freed of the stupidity of offensive coordinator Matt Canada, whom they fired earlier this week. I think it's going to be addition by subtraction. We should see more Jaylen Warren and George Pickens involvement in their gameplan. Let's say this is a 23-13 Steelers win.
Falcons vs. Saints
Pick: Juwan Johnson Over 2.5 Catches
The Falcons are very vulnerable over the middle of the field and particularly against opposing tight ends. They most recently were cooked by Trey McBride in their last game. Also, Saints' receiver Michael Thomas is now out with injury. I think in his absence, Derek Carr is going to look to Johnson more rather than to young receivers like AT Perry and Rashid Shaheed. I think Johnson will put up something like 4 catches for 43 yards today.
Broncos vs. Browna
Pick: Broncos -1.5
The Broncos are quietly playing very solid football right now and they're riding a 4 game winning streak. The recipe has been an improved defensive unit paired with a conservative offense. They've stifled some impressive offenses - the Chiefs, the Bills, and the Packers. Russell Wilson is playing more like a game manager at quarterback, content with taking care of the football and moving the chains. I think Denver is going to fare well at home against an inexperienced opposing QB. I think the Broncos win this one 20-16.
Eagles vs. Bills
Pick: James Cook Over 45.5 Rushing Yards
Last week, Buffalo played their first game with new offensive coordinator Joe Brady at the helm. Perhaps the biggest difference was Cook's involvement in the gameplan. He had 20 touches in the Bills' 32-6 win over the Jets for 102 total yards and a touchdown. I believe they are going to involve him once again in this big matchup of two of the league's best teams. The Eagles are very tough against the run - we all know how talented their defensive line is. However, their focus on pass rushing often leaves them vulnerable to outside runs. All it takes for Cook to hit this number is one big run in that situation. I think he will finish with about 15 carries for 54 yards.
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