Saturday
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens
I see Houston keeping the game close for a few reasons. First, CJ Stroud plays efficient, mistake-free football. He's only fumbled the ball twice this season and finished 13 of 16 games without throwing an interception. If he can do that today (and better, if the Houston defense can force a turnover or two) it gives them a great chance in the game. Second, the pressure here is squarely on the shoulders of Baltimore. Lamar Jackson has a 1-3 playoff record. In terms of changing the narrative and quieting his critics, this is a massive game for him. Meanwhile, for Houston, no one expected them to be here. They are absolutely playing with house money. All the pressure in this game is on the Ravens. Lastly, I like Houston's defensive front. I believe they will play the Baltimore run game tough and force Lamar to move the ball downfield through the air. I think we are going to see a good, close game with the Ravens pulling away in the 4th quarter in a dramatic win. The legends of Stroud, DeMeco Ryans, and Bobby Slowik will continue to grow and Lamar Jackson will finally advance to the AFC Championship.
Prediction: Ravens 23 Texans 17
Side: Houston +9.5
Total: Under 43.5 Points
Green Bay Packets at San Francisco 49ers
The Niners are going to dice up the Green Bay defense with the talents of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Brandon Aiyuk. How many times have we seen a Green Bay defense (or special teams) get cooked in a playoff game and send them back home for the season? I also have concerns about the Packers' offensive tackles in this matchup. Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom are going to be asked to contain a ferocious Niners' pass rush. I think we saw the absolute pinnacle of this Packers' offense last week, which gives me a lot of hope for the future, yet I think they'll come back down to Earth tonight. This will be the most lopsided game of the slate.
Prediction: 49ers 37 Packers 20
Side: San Francisco -9.5
Total: Over 50.5 Points
Sunday
Tampa Bay Bucs at Detroit Lions
I find myself overrating Tampa Bay in my head because of their beatdown of defending NFC Champion Philadelphia last week and some of the star power they have at key positions. They've got Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at receiver. Antoine Winfield Jr. is a terrific safety. Devin White and Lavonte David are a great pair of linebackers. However, we have to remember that Philadelphia is a lifeless, soft, inept football team right now and that the star players on Tampa don't completely cover up their problems. First, their pass protection was poor at times last week. Second, their defense relied heavily on the blitz. Third, they struggled to run the ball efficiently. All of these things, I believe, can be taken advantage of by Detroit. I think the Lions are well-suited to beating the blitz and they have a number of weapons on offense to go to. They have a solid pass rush, and they should have no problems stopping the Bucs' RB Rachaad White. I think the Lions will continue to roll and their long-suffering fans will continue to enjoy this playoff run.
Prediction: Lions 29 Bucs 16
Side: Detroit -6.5
Total: Under 49.5 Points
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
This is the NFL playoff rivalry everyone loves, and it's so great that it will be the final game of the weekend. To me, the most undervalued unit in the entire playoffs is still the Kansas City defense. They are ultimately going to be the factor that decides the game on Sunday. Buffalo QB Josh Allen has carried his team through a tumultuous season to get to this point and deserves recognition. I have to say though, outside of him, the Bills' offense seems to be missing something. The connection to receiver Stefon Diggs just doesn't seem the same. He used to routinely go for 150 yards. Now he goes for 50. The injury to WR2 Gabe Davis makes that even more of a problem. Guys like Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid have stepped up, but those names aren't exactly scaring Chiefs' defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. I think the Chiefs will control the pace of the game behind solid defense and an effective rushing attack keyed by Isiah Pacheco. Patrick Mahomes will execute on key third downs. I'm also concerned by some of the Buffalo injuries on defense. I think KC wins on a late Harrison Butker field goal in this one.
Prediction: Chiefs 23 Bills 20
Side: Kansas City +3
Total: Under 45.5 Points
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