2:32 PM ET - Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros
DET Starter: Tarik Skubal 18-4, 2.39 ERA, 228 K
HOU Starter: Framber Valdez 15-7, 2.91 ERA, 169 K
This is my favorite matchup of the day. You've got the best pitching matchup, and you have the young, upstart Tigers (who enter the postseason for the first time since 2024) going against the evil empire in Houston (8 consecutive playoff appearances, 2 World Series, 4 pennants, and 1 cheating scandal during the span). To make the matchup even juicier, ex-Astros manager AJ Hinch is now the skipper for Detroit. I think Skubal and Valdez will both be locked in and very difficult to beat, so we will see a low-scoring game. Ultimately, I give the edge to Houston and their experience to find a way to win.
Pick: Under 6.5 Runs (-120)
Score Prediction: Astros 3 Tigers 1
4:08 PM ET - Kansas City Royals at Baltimore Orioles
KC Starter: Cole Ragans 11-9, 3.14 ERA, 223 K
BAL Starter: Corbin Burnes 15-9, 2.92 ERA, 181 K
The Royals had a very nice season, then very nearly fell out of the playoff race because of a rough September, posting a record of 11-14. The main problem was lack of offense. They should get a boost with the return of key bat Vinnie Pasquantino, but I doubt he is playing at 100% right now. O's starter Corbin Burnes has a ton of playoff experience under his belt, and I think he is going to be lights-out against KC's suspect offensive lineup. I envision the Orioles winning this matchup today behind his arm and a couple of home runs from their own young, exciting core.
Pick: Orioles First 5 Run Line -0.5 (+100)
Score Prediction: Orioles 5 Royals 2
5:32 PM ET - New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
NYM Starter: Luis Severino 11-7, 3.91 ERA, 161 K
MIL Starter: Freddy Peralta 11-9, 3.68 ERA, 200 K
The Brewers have had their postseason spot locked up for quite a while, whereas the Mets had to fight their way in just one day ago. Normally, you'd say the rested team has the advantage, but baseball is a fickle sport. I like the Mets to keep the momentum going, and the Brewers' postseason woes to continue. I am very impressed by the season the Brew Crew had given what they lost in the offseason (most notably P Corbin Burnes and Manager Craig Counsell) yet I still have the feeling their offense will run dry in big games again. I think the Mets will ride the momentum wave and steal Game 1 on the road. As far as the pitching matchup, both of these guys have had rough postseason starts in the past. I am not confident in either one to really dominate the game. I believe this will be a back and forth game and that in any case, the Mets' offense will be the one to create the most excitement.
Pick: Mets Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (+100)
Score Prediction: Mets 6 Brewers 5
8:38 PM ET - Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres
ATL Starter: Ian Anderson (1st 2024 Start, Returning from Tommy John Surgery)
SD Starter: Michael King 13-9, 2.95 ERA, 201 K
On paper, this series is an obvious mismatch based on personnel alone. The Braves have been decimated by injuries all season long, and are currently without several key players in Ronald Acuña, Spencer Strider, Austin Riley, and Chris Sale. To start this one, Atlanta is turning to right hander Ian Anderson, who was nails during their 2021 World Series run, but has not pitched in the big leagues in almost 2 years. The Padres, meanwhile, have notable depth at essentially every position on the field - most importantly, a deep stable of playoff-caliber pitchers. I think the San Diego offense will get off to a quick start and Atlanta will look to even things up in Game 2, when they can put ace Max Fried on the mound.
Pick: Padres Run Line -1.5 (+130)
Score Prediction: Padres 9 Braves 3
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