In significant baseball news Monday, manager Craig Counsell left the Milwaukee Brewers and agreed to join the Chicago Cubs. Per Ken Rosenthal, Counsell will receive a record-breaking salary reported to be 5 years for over $40 million. Counsell is from the Milwaukee area and had a successful 9-year tenure as the Brewers' skipper. He recorded a .531 win/loss percentage and 5 postseason appearances, culminating in a 2018 run that saw the Brew Crew fall in a 7-game National League Championship Series to the Dodgers. Brewers players and even ownership have expressed surprised reactions to the move. Yet, in my mind, Counsell saw the writing on the wall. This iteration of the Milwaukee Brewers failed to reach the pinnacle of postseason success that they've hoped for, and since 2018 year, they've been on a decline. The decline has been masked by incredible pitching and the ineptitude of their NL Central division rivals. With Counsell's departure, Brandon Woodruff's injury concerns, and Christian Yelich no longer performing at an MVP level, dark days are ahead for Milwaukee as early as next season.
Initially, the Brewers struck gold when they traded for outfielder Christian Yelich on January 25, 2018. He immediately became a star. In the 2018 season, he batted .326 with 36 home runs, 110 RBI, and 1.000 OPS on his way to an MVP award and an All Star appearance. Milwaukee won the NL Central at 96-67 and came up just one game short of making the World Series. In 2019, he did it again, hitting .329 with 44 home runs, 97 RBI, and a 1.100 OPS. The Brewers got knocked out of the postseason by the eventual champion Washington Nationals. That offseason, Milwaukee rewarded him with a 9 year, $215 million contract - the largest in the history of the Brewers' franchise. In the short 2020 COVID season, Yelich never quite got going, batting .205, and the Brewers missed the postseason. After that, he began to have nagging back problems that I think are still affecting him and will likely continue through the rest of his career.
Sadly, since signing the contract, Yelich has not been the same. To put it in the perspective of WAR (wins above replacement), Yelich posted WARs of 7.3 and 7.0 in 2018 and 2019. Since then, it's been 0.5, 1.3, 2.7, then 3.6. In other words, he's managed to be a decent starting ballplayer, but given their investment and their surrounding talent, Milwaukee needs him to be one of the league's best. According to Spotrac, Yelich will remain under contract for at least 5 more years at a $26 million per year number, and he has a no-trade clause - so they are building around him no matter what. Of his teammates who are position players, only shortstop Willy Adames (who will be eligible for free agency after 2024) and catcher William Contreras has WARs of 3.0 or better in 2023. The Brewers are so averse to spending money that they piece together the lineup around Yelich with challenge trades (Adames from the Rays, OF Jesse Winker from the Mariners, 1B Rowdy Tellez from the Jays, and Contreras from the Braves), and low-cost veteran pickups (DH Carlos Santana, OF Mark Canha, and 3B Josh Donaldson). The majority of these players will move on to new destinations this winter, and the Brewers will repeat the process. It's a roll of the dice until they land on another emerging player like 2018 Yelich - and it's simply not going to be a sustainable model for success.
The pitching in the Yelich era has been incredible and it is mostly thanks to the trio of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, and Freddy Peralta. However, that could even be in question now. Woodruff is now struggling through a shoulder injury. He only pitched in 11 games in 2023 and there are reports indicating he could miss the entire 2024 season. If Woodruff can't regain his previous form, it would be a huge loss. Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young Award winner, is still pitching at a very high level but he will be eligible for free agency after the 2024 season. If the Brewers do take a big step back in the standings next season, would they consider dealing Burnes at the trade deadline? A Burnes trade could theoretically help the Brewers replenish their pool of prospects, something "small market" clubs like Milwaukee has to rely on to build a competitive roster at a low payroll. I think after so many early postseason exits in a row, and some of these other issues on the horizon, Counsell looked around and decided Chicago is a better situation. I have to say I agree with his assessment. I believe Chicago will finish ahead of the Brewers in the Central in 2024.
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