A primetime Super Bowl rematch on the Monday before Thanksgiving - what more could we as football fans ask for? Both teams are coming off their bye weeks and sit atop their respective conferences. The Chiefs are 7-2 and the Eagles are 8-1. Here are my thoughts on the matchup.
Andy Reid
Death, taxes, Andy Reid after a bye. Andy Reid has a 21-3 record following a regular season bye week. In addition, since coming to Kansas City, he has not lost to the Eagles. The reasons are pretty obvious. First, Reid is a football genius and when given extra time to gameplan and prepare for an opponent, he has a significant advantage. Second, Reid always has an extra motivation to get revenge against the Birds, who fired him in 2012. Reid has always been able to maximize his personnel on offense and find ways to win. He's had success with rosters where Todd Pinkston was his top receiver and where Charcandrick West was his top running back. I think Reid's also historically done a great job of pairing up with elite defensive minds like Jim Johnson and now Steve Spagnuolo. Spagnuolo, the three-time Super Bowl champion defensive coordinator, deserves a ton of praise for the Chiefs' current record. The KC defense has held every opponent to under 20 points (the Lions and Broncos scored defensive touchdowns against the Chiefs in their two losses) and they do it without many big name players. While we all talk about offense first with the Chiefs, this is the best defense the Eagles have faced aside from the Jets, whom they lost to.
Jalen Hurts
Hurts, like the warrior he is, will be playing at less than 100% health. That concerns me in this game. When the Chiefs get pressure, especially on the interior with Chris Jones, Hurts is going to have less juice than we're used to in order to escape the pocket and evade sacks. His ability to automatically convert short yardage on QB sneaks is a huge advantage for the Birds, and I question whether Brian Johnson and Nick Sirianni will hesitate to call that, given Hurts playing through injury. Lastly, I think the absence of Dallas Goedert at tight end (as well as the lack of a viable backup option) and the Chiefs' willingness to play press coverage on the outside with Trent McDuffie and L'Jarius Sneed sticking Devonta Smith and AJ Brown, will cause the Eagles to struglle to move the ball in this one especially in the first half. To me, the Eagles should throw the ball more to D'Andre Swift out of the backfield tonight and set up some screens to take some of the pressure off Hurts.
Travis Kelce
Kelce has been quiet the past two weeks. He's coming off a game in which he totaled just 3 catches for 14 yards. The Eagles' defense has points of weakness that I believe Reid and the Chiefs can attack with Kelce. At linebacker, Nakobe Dean just went down with a foot injury. The Birds are relying on journeymen Zach Cunningham and Nicholas Morrow to man the starting positions. In the slot, Avonte Maddox is out. The Eagles have tried several things to replace him, from trying an unproven Mario Goodrich to moving James Bradberry there to signing Bradley Roby. This is another area that is going to be susceptible. Lastly, at safety, Kevin Byard looked lost at times in his first game in an Eagle uniform and Reed Blankenship struggles to keep up with elite athletes at times. I think Kelce is going to have something like 7 catches and over 85 yards with a score. If Jake Ferguson, Logan Thomas, and Hunter Henry can challenge this defense, so can the great Travis Kelce.
Eagles' D-Line
Patrick Mahomes does not get sacked often. He's been sacked more than 2 times just once this entire season. In the Super Bowl matchup, he was never sacked. The Philly defensive line is stacked with talent and they've had a habit of stepping up and making huge plays in close games to turn the tide - this was certainly the case in their last victory over Dallas when Dak Prescott was sacked five times. I am curious to see whether this unit can make a difference in the matchup tonight. I just can't see it, though. I think Mahomes' field vision and nifty ability to escape pressure is going to keep the ball moving for the Chiefs and it's going to frustrate the Philly defense. I think they'll get just two sacks tonight.
I think this is going to be a tight game and points are going to be at a premium early on. I am predicting a 24-21 Chiefs' win.
Picks:
Chiefs -2.5 (-110)
Under 46 Points (-110)
Jalen Hurts Under 36.5 Rush Yards (-110)
D'Andre Swift Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
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