2024 NFL Mock Draft: QB, WR, OTs Fly Off the Board

1. Chicago Bears (from Carolina)

QB Caleb Williams, USC 6-1, 214

Player Comp: Kyler Murray

The Bears are not your typical team drafting first overall. They finished the season with a 7-10 record (5-3 in the final eight games after Justin Fields returned from injury) and really improved on defense down the stretch. They never gave up more than 20 points in a game after the bye week. In Chicago, Caleb Williams will be joined by a relatively strong group of playmakers, with Keenan Allen and DJ Moore at receiver, D'Andre Swift and Khalil Herbert at running back, and Cole Kmet at tight end. In my eyes, Williams is being overanalyzed and overcriticized at the moment for a couple of reasons. First, the talent surrounding him at USC dropped off pretty drastically between 2022 and 2023, particularly on the offensive line. He was forced to play hero ball at times and it led to mistakes. In a better situation, I expect him to play more under control and use his unique gifts, such as elite pocket awareness, creativity, footwork, and accuracy, to succeed. The other reason he's being overanalyzed is it's simply the nature of the draft cycle at this point. We have a collective tendency to look for the negatives with QB prospects and miss the positives. This has happened countless times, but the examples that stand out in my head most are Jordan Love and Justin Herbert. Those guys were crushed by the consensus pre-draft in 2020 and they turned out to be great players. I think Caleb goes into a great situation in Chicago and he will be the best quarterback in franchise history. Watch his preternatural awareness to evade the defenders, keep his eyes downfield, and deliver a missile of a throw. The off-the-field criticism is asinine. He paints his nails, but he's tough as nails too.

2. Washington Commanders

QB Drake Maye, North Carolina 6-4, 223

Player Comp: Justin Herbert

I am not believing the Jayden Daniels to Washington hype. Caleb Williams and Drake Maye have been the top two quarterbacks throughout the draft cycle, and I still believe that to be the case. And the "Now, even Maye vs. McCarthy is now a debate" talk is even more ludicrous. To me, everything we are hearing is your annual misinformation spread by teams to fool their competition and give NFL talking heads things to waste time debating and analyzing. Also, people are seriously speculating that Washington's signing of Marcus Mariota to be backup QB points to Daniels being the pick because of "similar styles." I completely reject the hypothesis. I don't think many teams are out there planning around their backup quarterback. There is such a scarcity of passable play at the position that I think teams are bringing in anyone they can. (This speaks to how Mariota even has a job after pretty uninspiring play the past three years). At the end of the day, Drake Maye is the pick here. A two year starter at UNC, Maye fared much better in his 2022 Redshirt Freshman season than in 2023. In '22, he threw for 4,321 yards with 38 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. He completed passes at a 66% clip. He also added 698 yards rushing and 7 scores. Then, he lost his two leading receivers - including the Colts' Josh Downs. With less surrounding talent, Maye struggled at times in 2023 and like Caleb Williams, he was forced to play hero ball. But if you watch this guy play down to down, you can see just how talented he is. He maneuvers the pocket effectively to evade the pass rush. He has the ability to change arm angles and can make throws to all areas of the field.

3. Las Vegas Raiders (Projected Trade Up with New England)

QB Jayden Daniels, LSU 6-4, 210

Player Comp: Aaron Brooks

The Raiders' organization has been communicating the usual talking points about their current quarterback room. They are saying they have full confidence in Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell. Do not be fooled. This team is angling to trade up for a quarterback prospect. They don't have time to waste on middling quarterback play. Now is the time to take a big swing on a passer with greater potential. If you look closely, Las Vegas is in a win-now setup. The best player on the roster, WR Davante Adams, is 31 years old. Maxx Crosby is one of the most ferocious pass rushers in the league and he is in his prime. The team just signed 28 year old defensive tackle Christian Wilkins to a hefty contract. Furthermore, the team posted a respectable 5-4 record after changing head coaches midseason, including a surprising Christmas victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. I believe team owner Mark Davis sees that success as a sign that they can quickly build a squad that at least competes for a wildcard playoff spot. Here, they move up to take Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels, a guy that head coach Antonio Pierce knows well from their time together at Arizona State. In Vegas, Daniels would also join Offensive Coordinator Luke Getsy, who just worked with Justin Fields in Chicago. Say what you want about Fields, but he performed well in 2023 and I feel Getsy deserves some credit for it. The hope will be that the Raiders can maximize Daniels' running ability, and that Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Michael Mayer can be friendly targets to help him to move the ball efficiently downfield. In an AFC West division where you're forced to compete with Patrick Mahomes II and Justin Herbert, it is imperative to try and identify a QB with a higher ceiling than Minshew and O'Connell offer. Meanwhile, for New England, there seems to be a feeling that they do not love the quarterback options here. When they signed veteran Jacoby Brissett in March, they gave themselves some flexibility at the position. They can afford to be patient, move down, and add assets to help reshape the roster.

4. Arizona Cardinals

WR Marvin Harrison, Jr, Ohio State 6-3, 209

Player Comp: AJ Green

The current starting receivers for the Cardinals are Michael Wilson, Chris Moore, and Greg Dortch. I think it is safe to say that Arizona needs to add a dynamic pass catcher to this offense. There are many rumors about the Cards looking to trade down and accumulate draft assets, as they did last year, but similar to my thoughts on New England, I do not believe a trade down is worthwhile for this team. They already hold six Top 100 picks in this draft, so they can afford to go with a quality over quantity approach. Adding a handful of "B-" and "C+" players does not make the same impact as adding a single "A" player like Marvin Harrison, Jr. would. I envision Harrison having an instant connection with QB Kyler Murray. He could be targeted 125+ times as a rookie. For reference, in DeAndre Hopkins' first season with the Cards, he was targeted an insane 160 times, making 115 catches for 1,407 yards and and 6 TDs in 16 games. It would be a huge mistake if the Cardinals trade down in this draft and miss out on one of the top receivers. They obviously need to add help on the defensive side of the ball, but I believe they'd be better served using their other draft picks to make that happen. This is the best player in the draft and Arizona will be thrilled to get him 4th overall.

5. Tennessee Titans (Projected Trade with Chargers)

OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame 6-9, 321

Player Comp: Tony Boselli

I think the Chargers have significant leverage to use against the Tennessee Titans and will use it to force them to trade into this slot. While it’s obvious that the Titans need a starting-caliber left tackle to protect Will Levis and that virtually everyone is mocking Joe Alt to them at 7, the Chargers’ plans seem more ambiguous. Sure, they have a big need at wide receiver following the departures of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, but A) I am convinced they'd be happy to take Alt because their offensive line needs help aside from Rashawn Slater, B) With Nabers and Odunze still on the board, the Chargers can afford to swap spots with the Titans, pick up extra capital for their troubles, and still be guaranteed one of those two receivers. I think the Titans will ultimately relent and decide this trade is worth doing. I, for one, would agree. Standing six feet and nine inches (or 2.0574 meters for our readers outside the U.S.), Joe Alt has looks like a literal titan. He is the best tackle prospect in a very strong group, and Tennessee will be thrilled that the early run on QBs and WRs pushed him down the board a bit. Alt will start immediately for the Titans and will pair with last year's first rounder, Peter Skoronski to form a formidable left side of the offensive line for years to come.

6. New York Giants

WR Malik Nabers, LSU 6-0, 200

Player Comp: Odell Beckham, Jr.

I have written before about the quandary the New York Giants are in with Daniel Jones as the incumbent quarterback. To be fair to Jones, he has never had a legitimate WR1 at his disposal. The Giants have made mistake after mistake trying to find that guy. Everyone from Kenny Golladay to Kadarius Toney has disappointed. I understand that Giants fans want a new quarterback, but I feel like the team is going to give Danny Dimes one last shot as the starter, with Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito as the backups. If things go poorly, they will be in the QB market next offseason. Malik Nabers is a big play machine, and that is something the Giants could really use right now. I compare him to an early career Odell Beckham Jr. because literally every time the ball is in his hands, he is capable of taking the ball to the endzone. He has an ability to accelerate that is just rare even among NFL athletes. They can feel good about finally picking up a WR1. I implore the Giants to not draft JJ McCarthy here, because in my opinion he is not a significant upgrade over what Daniel Jones gives you. Nabers, meanwhile, is lightyears ahead of everyone this team has lined up at receiver since Beckham himself.

7. Los Angeles Chargers (Projected Trade Down with Tennessee)

WR Rome Odunze, Washington 6-3, 212

Player Comp: Andre Johnson

I think the Chargers understand that they cannot rely on last year's first rounder, Quentin Johnston, to be the engine of their offense. Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, and Mike Williams are all out the door, so this team needs to bring in a reliable target for Justin Herbert that is capable of catching ten passes every game and moving the chains in key situations. In my mind, Odunze embodies everything new Chargers' coach Jim Harbaugh looks for. He is a leader, he is productive (1,640 receiving yards in 2023 and 1,145 in 2022, 26 career TDs), and he is tough. He is an awesome run blocker for the position, which should be a crucial element in the team identity Harbaugh is looking for. This guy even played through a broken rib and punctured lung! He is a very exciting prospect and I think LA would be happy with him at 5 or 7, but in this scenario they take advantage of the Titans' obvious OT need and the depth of talent in the 2024 receiver class to trade down.

8. Atlanta Falcons

EDGE Dallas Turner, Alabama 6-3, 247

Player Comp: Harold Landry

The Falcons haven't had a player record double digit sacks since Vic Beasley went off for 15.5 in 2016. They haven't even seen a player surpass 7 sacks since 2019. This squad is in desperate need of pass rush help, so it feels like a certainty that they will take an edge defender here. The only question is - which one? Turner doesn't have the same production profile as the other top edge defenders in this class, but he is going to be the highest rated for most NFL teams because of his build, skillset, and the high level coaching he benefited from at Alabama. Turner has extremely long arms which can help him to keep opposing offensive tackles from getting their hands on him, bat down passes at the line of scrimmage, and wrap up elusive ballcarriers in space. He also has the athleticism to drop into coverage, which sets him apart from other edge rushers in this class and makes him an ideal fit for new Falcons coach Raheem Morris' scheme. Check out this stat from PFF's Steve Palazzolo.

As an aside, I would love to see what happens if Odunze or Nabers are available at #8. Would the Falcons be bold enough to spend yet another Top 10 pick on a skill position player on offense?

9. Los Angeles Rams (Projected Trade Up with Chicago)

QB JJ McCarthy, Michigan 6-2, 219

Player Comp: Baker Mayfield

The Rams haven't made a first round draft pick since 2016, when they took QB Jared Goff. It's fitting then, that they would do it again here. Current starting quarterback Matthew Stafford is 36 years old, so you have to think that LA is considering succession plans. In fact, they likely tipped their hand when they drafted Stetson Bennett in the 4th round last year. I think the team will be more aggressive in pursuing a quarterback of the future this time. With Sean McVay at head coach and Les Snead at general manager, they are not going to have this type of opportunity often because A) McVay will usually coach the team well enough that they'll be picking in the mid 20s and B) Snead will deal all their future first round picks in bold trades.

McCarthy, I believe, is this year's "smokescreen quarterback." It is not dissimilar to Mac Jones in 2021. Some of the quarterback-needy teams at the top of the draft are pumping up his stock to throw off the other teams to keep them guessing about their competitors' plans. He did not come from nowhere - he was highly recruited coming out of high school and he's been starting for one of the nation's best programs for the past two seasons, leading them to a 27-1 record and a their first National Championship in almost three decades. Even though Michigan won their games in the trenches, McCarthy made impressive throws in the rare instances when he was called upon. He is a good athlete for the position, and I think teams are going to point to his leadership and him being a winner. I think he is capable of being successful in this offense, even though he does not have the ceiling of a Matthew Stafford - it's closer to a Jared Goff. The question, then, is whether that level of play warrants a trade up and top 10 pick. I believe, given the scarcity of above average quarterback play in the league, that the value proposition is a good one.

10. New York Jets

CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo 6-0, 195

Player Comp: Marcus Trufant

This might be a surprising pick to some, because A) On the surface, corner is not a pressing need for this team, B) Nearly every mock on the Internet has the Jets picking a wide receiver, tight end, or offensive tackle at this selection, and C) This is a player from the MAC going Top 10. Well, the argument here is a simple one. First, corner is a premium position, and it never hurts to add another talented player to the mix at that spot. Second, this move can help the Jets make decisions on their current starting CBs, Sauce Gardner and DJ Reed. Reed will be a free agent after this season and will be seeking a contract with an average value around $12 to $15 Million. Gardner, meanwhile, will likely be seeking a lucrative contract extension following the 2025 season. Adding a talented CB on a rookie deal could help to navigate a future Reed departure and Gardner extension, and allow the team to ease Arnold into an NFL transition. The Jets can afford to pass on an offensive tackle at this spot because they signed Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses. They can take a look at the position later on as the NFL Draft continues. Mitchell has incredible instincts and feel for the position. Granted, he played against MAC competition throughout his career, yet he stepped up and showed the same high level ability in the Senior Bowl. This guy is a legitimate talent and deserves to be talked about as one of the best players in the entire draft.

11, Minnesota Vikings

DT Byron Murphy II, Texas 6-1, 297

Player Comp: Geno Atkins

If you look at the list of recent Super Bowl champions, they all share a common trait on the defensive side of the football: Also, this level of defensive tackle is exceedingly difficult to acquire outside of the first round. Of the 15 highest-paid defensive tackles in the NFL, 13 of them were drafted in either Round 1 or Round 2. The point is, to get premium play at this position, teams need to invest premium draft capital. The Vikings would be a great destination for Byron Murphy II. They've already put resources into improving the pass rush this offseason with the additions of Andrew Van Ginkel and Jonathan Greenard on the outside. They should move next to the inside, where the current options are Harrison Phillips and Jerry Tillery - not exactly guys that scare opposing offenses. Murphy is somewhat undersized for his position, but he uses his quickness and power to routinely beat blockers. He could be a difference maker for a Minnesota defense that does not have many names the average fan would recognize. I also love that the Vikings could have two players named Byron Murphy starting on their defense next year - one at corner and one at DT. Scroll down to pick #23 for my thoughts on why the Vikings will not use their two firsts to trade up for a quarterback prospect.

12. Cincinnati Bengals (Proposed Trade Up with Denver)

CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama 6-0, 189

Player Comp: Marshon Lattimore

Cincy is not being talked about enough as one of the most fascinating teams in the NFL right now. After a Super Bowl appearance in 2021 and a Conference Championship appearance in 2022, they had a lost season last year. They struggled out of the gate, starting 1-3 and by the time they began to turn things around, QB Joe Burrow went down with a season-ending injury. The nagging question that is surely haunting Bengals fans is, did they miss their window as true AFC North contenders? They no longer have the luxury of building the roster around a QB on a rookie contract. WR Tee Higgins is likely gone after this year or sooner because he is unhappy playing on the franchise tag. The other position groups on the roster I'd rate as average. The defense, especially, lacks true game changing talent. Suddenly, after a couple of seasons finishing among the AFC's best, the Bengals look like they've fallen behind a number of rivals. You can easily rank Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo (even though they are also losing talent), and Houston ahead of them. Then you could argue for Miami, the Jets, and Cleveland. I'd probably slot Cincy somewhere around there. To me, the Bengals need to nail some 2024 draft picks to elevate themselves ahead of the pack and stay relevant through the next chapter of the Joe Burrow era. The lowest hanging fruit would be to improve the defense, which finished 31st in yards allowed per game last year. I would like to see them get aggressive and trade up for one of the top two corners, and that is exactly what they do in this mock. A CB room of Arnold, DJ Turner, Mike Hilton, and Cam Taylor-Britt alongside the new safety tandem of Vonn Bell and Geno Stone makes for a very solid secondary.

13. New England Patriots (Proposed Trade Down with Las Vegas)

OT Olu Fashanu, Penn State 6-6, 312

Player Comp: Laremy Tunsil

Here are my thoughts on New England: First, there is no rush to draft a quarterback. One of the main reasons why Mac Jones failed was the limitations of his supporting cast, particularly at the wide receiver position. As it stands right now, the Patriots' next QB would be working with the same group. The only change is that KJ Osborn is now in and DeVante Parker is out. There are also questions on the offensive line. Center David Andrews is entering his age 32 season. Depending on whether they view Mike Onwenu as a tackle or guard (I view him more as a guard), they are in need of starting caliber players at both tackle positions. It's not exactly a great situation for a rookie quarterback to build confidence in. I think this team is better off letting Jacoby Brissett start this year, trade down in the draft, and try to infuse as much young talent into the offense as possible. Their defense, meanwhile, is a very strong unit. They finished top ten in most of the kay categories in 2023. They wisely re-signed Kyle Dugger and Josh Uche, and it looks like they found two talented players in last year's draft in CB Christian Gonzalez and EDGE Keion White.

Fashanu, a high school teammate of Caleb Williams at Washington DC's Gonzaga Prep, is an elite pass blocker. Across 680 snaps in two seasons as a starter, Fashanu did not allow a single sack. He could quietly end up being the best of this tackle class. All he needs is experience and quality coaching. He can be the 2024 starting left tackle for the Patriots as they navigate this rebuild. With the extra picks they add in their trade down, they can look to add some playmakers in the middle rounds.

14. New Orleans Saints

WR Brian Thomas Jr, LSU 6-3, 209

Player Comp: Nico Collins

The Saints decide to ignore their question marks on the offensive line and take a home run swing on one of the draft's most impressive athletes. Thomas put up some gaudy stats this year as LSU's "other receiver" next to Malik Nabers. In 13 games this past season, he went for 1,177 yards and 17 touchdowns with a 17.3 average per catch. He has truly rare speed and athleticism for his size - he ran the 40 yard dash in 4.33 seconds at the NFL Scouting Combine, with a 38.5 inch vertical. In New Orleans, Thomas would have the benefit of playing across from Chris Olave, which would allow him to continue being a dominant WR2 with the upside of one day becoming the lead guy. For New Orleans, I'll frame it this way: If you are stuck with Derek Carr at quarterback, the best thing you can do is surround him with playmakers to try and elevate his level of play as best you can. Carr's best season was in 2016, when he was throwing to a rookie Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree and they both surpassed 1,000 receiving yards. I feel like Olave and Thomas Jr. are capable of doing the same thing. As long as the Saints can cobble together a decent offensive line, they will still be in the mix to go 9-8 and compete for the NFC South division.

15. Indianapolis Colts

TE Brock Bowers, Georgia 6-3, 243

Player Comp: Dallas Clark

Colts' head coach Shane Steichen loves tight ends. In fact, the team currently has seven of them on roster. While some of them, like Jelani Woods and Will Mallory, have potential, the truth is none of them are gamebreaking talents. Georgia's Brock Bowers, though, is exactly that. His talent is undeniable. He is probably the greatest tight end in the history of College Football. A three-time All-American and two-time Mackey Award winner, Bowers scored 31 total touchdowns in 40 games, won two National Championships, and logged 2,538 receiving yards in his collegiate career. He has truly rare speed and elusiveness for the position that could be a major asset for a creative offensive playcaller like Steichen.

There are just two problems that lead me to believe he will fall a bit in the 2024 NFL Draft. First, if you look around the league, virtually every team either A) has a starting caliber tight end on roster or B) does not value the tight end position sufficiently to justify taking one in the 1st Round. The second limiting factor for Brock Bowers' draft position is history. Jason Fitzgerald charted the outcomes of 1st Round tight ends since 2011. David Njoku, who's had an up and down career in his own right, was the only one of these players to sign an extension with the drafting team. As a general manager, you want to add as much value to your team as possible with a first round pick. One of your foremost goals should be that the player earns a second contract with your organization. Recent history suggests picking a tight end does not add value for you.

The various reasons why most of these guys didn't pan out are debatable. You could say tight ends just take years to develop, and that's why you see a guy like Evan Engram enjoy more success with his second team. Ebron, Hurst, and Fant also fit that category to a lesser extent. You could say that tight end is one of the more multi-faceted positions in the game and has become very difficult to evaluate. You could say that it takes a very tactful offensive play caller to correctly utilize a tight end. (This is the exhausted Kyle Pitts narrative). I have no doubts that Brock Bowers is a blue chip player and will immediately help the offense he joins this spring. I do, however, feel like some NFL teams are going to reconsider just how high a tight end should be drafted, Lastly, look at this picture of Bowers standing next to Rob Gronkowski. I am half joking here, but there's a chance a few teams are going to be concerned about his non-traditional size for the position based on this photo alone. Ultimately, I think a team like the Colts will determine his talents justify the risk.

16. Seattle Seahawks

EDGE Laiatu Latu, UCLA 6-5, 259

Player Comp: Shawne Merriman

Every draft season, there is a team that missed the playoffs, but when you evaluate their roster, most positions seem like they are in a good spot. For me the Seahawks are that team right now. They have three quality options at receiver and corner. They have two solid starting offensive tackles. They've used several resources on the pass rush. They've had turnover at safety and inside linebacker, but signed competent replacements in free agency. Their biggest need going into the draft was probably left guard, and that has been filled with the recent signing of Laken Tomlinson. I was tempted to put them in the mix of QB curious teams who'd be interested in trading up for McCarthy or Daniels, or staying put at taking a Penix or Nix, but they traded for Sam Howell this offseason and probably feel like Geno Smith is good enough to start for another year or two. So, after all that, I am baffled by this team's direction more than any other on the board. I am going to give them the best defensive player available - UCLA's Laiatu Latu. He already plays like an NFL veteran. He knows angles, he knows how to use his hands to defeat blockers, and he has a relentless motor. His production profile is as impressive as anyone's. He totaled 23.5 sacks the past two seasons at UCLA. How does he fall down the board to #16? First, he is on the older side for a first round prospect at 23 years old. Second, there are medical concerns that will probably push him off some teams; draft boards altogether. Latu had a significant neck injury as a sophomore at the University of Washington that led to him retiring from football in 2021. He eventually transferred to UCLA and was cleared by their medical staff to play football again. The rest is history. I feel like this is the appropriate range for Latu to be selected given the risk/reward involved in the decision. Seattle, having such a balanced roster already, is in good position to take the chance.

17. Jacksonville Jaguars

DT Johnny Newton, Illinois 6-2, 304

Player Comp: Javon Hargrave

I want to see Jacksonville make this move because they are building a fearsome pass rush. On the outside, they have Josh Allen and Travon Walker. In free agency, they strengthened the interior by adding Arik Armstead. Here, they have the opportunity to put the cherry on top with another talented prospect, Johnny Newton. This guy is always active and always around the football. An All-American in 2023, he had 7.5 sacks, 52 tackles, 8.5 TFL, and blocked 4 kicks. In 2022, he recorded 5.5 sacks, 62 tackles, and 14 TFL. He is the kind of three-down anchor that can change a defense.

18. Buffalo Bills (Projected Trade Up with Denver, Pick Originally Owned by Cincy)

WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas 6-2, 205

Player Comp: Jordy Nelson

This is a very popular pairing among the mock drafts I have seen recently. It is actually to the point where it feels too obvious for it to actually happen in real life. Mitchell is somewhat of a polarizing prospect - there are some who feel he can develop into a CeeDee Lamb and others who see him as a Denzel Mims. Ultimately, though, I feel like there are enough teams in need of wide receiver help and enough scouts who believe in Mitchell that he will be picked higher than consensus rankings. In this scenario, Denver is sitting at 18, Chicago at 19, and Pittsburgh at 20. All three have been mocked receivers in this offseason. I could see Buffalo moving up to make sure they have a starting receiver to work alongside Curtis Samuel, Khalil Shakir, and Dalton Kincaid. Mitchell has WR1 potential, but he just needs to clean up a few of the technical aspects of his game to get there. Bills' receivers coach Adam Henry has a nice track record - he's worked with Odell Beckham Jr., Jarvis Landry, CeeDee Lamb, and Amari Cooper over the course of his career. I think Buffalo is going to make a bold move on draft night in hopes of extending their window of contention in the AFC. Whether that involves taking a receiver, pass rusher, or defensive back remains to be seen. In my view, Buffalo's receiver need after trading Stefon Diggs is going to be so obvious that other teams will force their hand to trade up.

19. Chicago Bears (Projected Trade Down with Rams)

EDGE Jared Verse, Florida State 6-4, 254

Player Comp: Brandon Graham

The Bears will be thrilled to trade down ten spots and still get Jared Verse. Verse can step in immediately and give the Bears another ferocious pass rusher across from Montez Sweat. What is the incentive for Chicago to trade down from 9th overall? First, their bank of 2024 draft picks is relatively empty. They have just four picks - 1, 9, 75, and 122. It would behoove them to add a few more selections to add as much young talent as possible. Second, I think there will be several desperate teams calling to move up to 9, whether they're looking at QB, WR, or OT - and desperate teams offer the best trade packages. Chicago could move down a few spots, add some picks, and still get a player they like at a valuable position. What stands out to me about Verse is his power and his motor - which is why I compare him to Brandon Graham.

20. Pittsburgh Steelers

OL Graham Barton, Duke 6-5, 313

Player Comp: Joe Thuney

Adding Graham Barton here would be a massive win for Pittsburgh. This guy is a stud. He is consistent, tough, and athletic enough to play multiple spots on the offensive line. The Steelers could currently use better starting options at left guard and center. Barton could start as a rookie at either one and enjoy a long career and a spot on the Steelers' team Hall of Honor. Obviously, the Steelers have a screaming need at wide receiver, where George Pickens is the only respectable starting caliber player on roster. However, Pittsburgh has proven for the past decade plus that they can identify good wideouts in the second round and beyond - Antonio Brown, Diontae Johnson, Mike Wallace, Martavis Bryant, and Emmanuel Sanders are just a few examples. If I had to call my shot for this year's draft, I think they will grab Alabama's Jermaine Burton later on.

21. Arizona Cardinals (Projected Trade Up with Miami)

CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson 6-1, 173

Player Comp: Ike Taylor

Cardinals' GM Monti Ossenfort is a menace working the phones on draft night. If the Cards don't make a trade at #4 overall, I am sure they will trade up from their spot at 27 instead. The Dolphins, having lost out on Graham Barton, will move down here and re-evaluate their options further down the board. I think Arizona should trade up here and take the best defensive lineman or corner available. In this scenario, that would be Clemson's Nate Wiggins. Wiggins is smooth and fluid in coverage, with long arms and closing speed that allow him to make plays on the ball. The only concern with him is his slight frame. As you see in the clip below, though, he has shown the willingness to get physical and make tackles. He is going to need to keep building on that to realize his potential as a high level starting NFL corner. I think the Cardinals will be excited to leave Round 1 with foundational pieces on offense and defense.

22. Philadelphia Eagles

OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State 6-6, 328

Player Comp: Taylor Decker

Current starting right tackle Lane Johnson will be 34 heading into the 2024 season, and he's battled injuries throughout his career. I believe the team will look to bring in a player who can sit behind Lane for a year or two and develop into a quality successor. In the meantime, Fuaga can compete for starting right guard spot as early as 2024. While positions like cornerback feel like a greater need (especially given James Bradberry's struggles down the stretch last season) the Birds' front office always values the trenches first and plans for the future not the present when making first round picks. Fuaga is the best player available. I have seen him as high as 10th overall in some mocks. Ultimately, I envision him falling down the board a bit if teams like the Saints and Bengals opt to pass on the tackle position. Also, I do not see the Eagles taking a center here because Cam Jurgens is much better suited to play center than guard long term.

23. Minnesota Vikings (from Cleveland via Houston)

QB Michael Penix, Jr, Washington 6-2, 216

Player Comp: Philip Rivers

The Vikings recently acquired the 23rd overall pick in a trade with Houston, and everyone is assuming they did so to have the trade pieces to move into the Top 5 and snag JJ McCarthy or Drake Maye. In this supposed scenario, they'd be offering Picks 11 and 23, a 2025 1st, and more to either New England, Arizona, or the Chargers to swap spots. To me, Vikings' GM Kwesi Odafo-Mensah would never blatantly show his hand to his competitors that way. If the entire league knows they picked up #23 for the purpose of moving up, doesn't that mean Minnesota has basically handed over additional leverage to teams in the Top 5 to ask for even more in a trade package? If that was their plan, wouldn't they wait until draft day to execute it? To me, the Vikings' acquisition of pick #23 points to Minnesota being more lukewarm on the quarterback class. I think their plan is this: if one of the top guys slips to 11, they would take him there. If not, they are comfortable picking a defensive difference maker at 11 and then taking Penix at 23. By acquiring the second 1st round pick and giving the notion that they'll be moving into the Top 5, Minnesota puts pressure on rival teams like Las Vegas and Denver (or longshots like Seattle and New Orleans) to make their own trades to get ahead of #11, thus pushing talented defensive players down the board.

Granted, there are some risks involved with this prospect. First, Penix will be a 24 year old rookie. Second, he has an injury history. At different points, he tore each of his ACLs. This past season, he played through a shoulder issue. He is a good athlete, but he is entirely averse to scrambling, which could be a limiting factor in today's NFL. Some QB experts are also concerned with his down-to-down accuracy and contend that the University of Washington receivers often made him look better than he is. Having established all of that, I understand why a team could become infatuated with Penix. All you really need to do is watch the Semifinal game against Texas. Penix threw dimes all over the field all night, finishing with an eye popping 29/38 for 430 yards, and 2 touchdowns. It was the best performance that any QB in this draft class had the entire year. He has a rocket arm, he avoids pressure in the pocket, and delivers the ball accurately and on time. I can imagine Penix starting for the Vikings from Day One, and with weapons such as Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and Aaron Jones at his disposal, he would be in great position to succeed. Perhaps they could even add one of his former teammates Ja'Lynn Polk or Jalen McMillan as depth wideouts later on in the draft. I have to say, I would love Penix in Minnesota and I think it would be the perfect situation for his play style. I think an NFL team will see that Texas game and feel like they can coach him to get that kind of game from him every week. I have confidence in Kevin O'Connell if he is the coach to take on that challenge.

24. Dallas Cowboys

OT/OG Troy Fautanu, Washington 6-4, 317

Player Comp: Mike Iupati

Dallas will be disappointed to miss out on Graham Barton, but Troy Fautanu is great value here at #24 and his versatility will give them some options. They are in need of two starters on the offensive line. Tyler Smith, Zack Martin, and Terrence Steele are all locked in as starters, but they need to add someone else here in Round 1. I think what they do with Fautanu all depends on how they view Tyler Smith. Smith has played left guard for his first two seasons. Now that Tyron Smith has moved on to the Jets, they are deciding between kicking Smith out to left tackle or leaving him at guard where he's proven to be really good. I think Dallas can go into camp and see how Fautanu looks at tackle early on. If they need to swap him and Smith's positions, they can do so. This is not the flashy pick we are used to from the Cowboys, but this is a super solid player who fits an important need for them.

25. Green Bay Packers

CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama 6-0, 199

Player Comp: TreDavious White

This pick represents A) an improvement on the Packers' overall talent at the corner position and B) a hedge on their investments in starting caliber corners who have struggled to stay on the field. Jaire Alexander is one of the best CBs in the NFL, but he missed 10 games in 2023 and 13 games in 2021 due to injuries. 2021 first round pick Eric Stokes has missed even more time, missing 14 games in 2023 and 8 in 2022. This forced the Packers to start Corey Ballentine (undrafted Giants castoff) and Carrington Valentine (7th round rookie) for a large portion of last season. Those guys availed themselves relatively well, yet I think the team will look to upgrade the depth at the CB spot so that they can feel better about their options if Alexander or Stokes go down again in 2024. Kool-Aid McKinstry is the perfect guy to add some juice to the secondary (sorry, couldn't help but use that one). McKinstry has become something of an overlooked player due to the rises of Mitchell and Arnold during the offseason evaluation cycle. I still think he is solidly a first round talent and will fall somewhere here in the twenties and be capable of contributing immediately for a playoff-caliber team. He is a high-awareness player who understands opponents' route concepts and tendencies and, while he does not put up big interception numbers, he finds ways to breaks up passes.

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

EDGE Chop Robinson, Penn State 6-3, 254

Player Comp: Dee Ford

Tampa Bay will be disappointed they missed out on the top cornerback prospects, because they do have a need there. They will pivot to the pass rush, where Chop Robinson is a great value at pick #26 overall. Last month, the Bucs released Shaquil Barrett, who notched 45 sacks in his 5 years with the team to go along with a Super Bowl ring. That leaves a giant hole in their pass rush rotation. Tampa's outside pass rusher group of Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Yaya Diaby, Randy Gregory, and Anthony Nelson looks a lot more potent when you add Robinson to the mix. At 21, Chop is a younger prospect with tantalizing traits for the position. The hope though for NFL teams is that he will be more productive as a pro than as a collegiate player. He totaled just 11.5 sacks and 20 tackles for loss in 30 games. However, he ran a 4.48 40 yard dash and a 1.54 10 yard split at 250 pounds. His explosiveness, ability to bend, and twitchiness will definitely attract a coaching staff that thinks they can mold him into an All-Pro type of player.

27. Miami Dolphins

WR Xavier Worthy, Texas 5-11, 165

Player Comp: DeSean Jackson

Miami loves nothing more than to weaponize speed on offense. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane are all extremely fast. Miami can strengthen a strength on their squad by adding the fastest man in the history of the NFL Combine in Xavier Worthy. Coach Mike McDaniel can go crazy this summer designing creative plays to get each of these athletes in open space and dare defenses to keep up. In the immediate future, Miami can put all three of Hill, Waddle, and Worthy on the field together. But this pick also serves as a useful look to the future. Waddle is due for a lucrative contract extension (probably in the range of what DeVonta Smith received) and Hill is 30, meaning his prime years may be running out sooner rather than later. Worthy could rise into a larger role if the Dolphins move on from Hill in a year or two.

28. Denver Broncos (Projected to Trade Down Twice, From 12, then 18)

QB Bo Nix, Oregon 6-2, 214

Player Comp: Jimmy Garoppolo

The Broncos have been trapped in quarterback hell since Peyton Manning's retirement. Here's the list of players they've started at QB since then:

Trevor Siemian

Paxton Lynch

Brock Osweiler

Case Keenum (after his 2017 Linsanity run was finished)

Joe Flacco (was not elite in 2019)

Drew Lock

Brandon Allen

Brett Rypien

Jeff Driskel

Kendall Hinton/Philip Lindsay (the infamous 2020 Wildcat game)

Teddy Bridgewater

Russell Wilson

Jarrett Stidham (current projected starter for 2024)

That is arguably the worst run of starters in the past decade. Most recently, Denver handed over a mountain of draft capital to Seattle in exchange for Russell Wilson, and he fared to meet expectations. Now, they are left with just Jarrett Stidham at the quarterback position. Therefore, I think the Broncos are going to take a more measured approach, and head coach Sean Payton's recent comments seem to hint the same. In this mock, they trade down twice - first from 12 to 18, then from 18 to 28. They can accumulate additional picks in the process, which will allow them to attack other positions of need, like edge rusher, corner, better pass catchers, and a successor at LT for Garrett Boles. Here at the back end of Round 1, they can draft a starting caliber QB in Bo Nix who plays under control (shocking compared to his days at Auburn) and delivers the ball accurately and on time. If Nix is a success, then they'll have him on a cost-controlled rookie contract with a 5th year option. If he fails, well, at least they extracted the maximum value for their #12 overall pick and hopefully hit on some of the other rookies they took. If Denver goes this route, I'd even lobby for them to draft a second QB, say in Round 4, much like Washington did in 2012 taking Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins. Hopefully, Denver has learned from their mistake with Russell Wilson and has the creativity and patience required to solve the current situation. If not, their fan base is going to see about another 7 to 10 names added to that awful post-Peyton Manning QB list.

29. Detroit Lions

EDGE Darius Robinson, Missouri 6-5, 285

Player Comp: Charles Omenihu

Darius Robinson is one of the few prospects who will be attending the First Round of the 2024 NFL Draft in person this year, so I suspect he has a promise from one of the teams. Detroit feels like a team that would be interested in his talents. I'd like to see them continue to improve the defensive line. They signed nose tackled DJ Reader and DE Marcus Davenport already. Davenport, though, struggles to stay on the field, so Darius Robinson could be a nice hedge on that bet. At minimum, Robinson could immediately play a role similar to that of John Cominsky. He can line up on the edge at times and then kick inside on obvious passing downs. Robinson has experience at both spots and has the power to win against blockers inside and outside. As an added bonus, he is from Southfield, Michigan. If you want to spin this pick into something a TV analyst would say, you can say this: "The Lions blew the lead in the NFC Championship game because they couldn't pressure Brock Purdy enough. This guy will help them close games by getting to the quarterback."

30. Baltimore Ravens

CB/S Cooper DeJean, Iowa 6-1, 203

Player Comp: Malcolm Jenkins

Seemingly every year, a talented prospect goes later than anticipated and the Ravens end up being the beneficiary. This would be yet another example. Cooper DeJean could help Baltimore as a corner or a safety. They lost starters Ronald Darby (CB) and Geno Stone (S) in free agency and haven't yet brought in replacements. I think the Ravens have the depth to kind of ease DeJean into action in his rookie year and rotate him in different subpackages, perhaps playing some nickel or some safety. This guy has lots of potential. He is a straight up playmaker - he had three pick sixes in 2022 - and also adds value as a punt returner, which I'm sure John Harbaugh will love.

31. San Francisco 49ers

OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma 6-8, 322

Player Comp: Kolton Miller

With this selection, San Francisco looks to the future and brings in a player who could be the heir apparent to another former Oklahoma Sooner, All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams. Williams will be 36 years old heading into the 2024 season, so I believe the Niners will invest an early draft pick on an offensive lineman. Guyton is yet another athletic freak of a prospect. He mostly played on the right side in college, but I feel he has the traits and the ability to switch back to the left, learn behind Williams for a year or so, and grow into a quality starting player. He is long, with impressive agility and balance. He should have no problem pulling (as Trent often does) or getting to the second level on explosive runs. I see him as an ideal fit in the Niners' offense, and similar to his former teammate Anton Harrison last year, a guy who is too talented to fall out of the First Round.

32. Kansas City Chiefs

OT Kingsley Suamataia, BYU 6-5, 326

Player Comp: George Fant

Yes, two consecutive offensive tackles to close out the first round. I love this pick because we get to pair up Andy Reid, a big boy from BYU, with another big boy from BYU. I like that Suamataia has experience playing both left tackle and right tackle, because either could conceivably fit into Kansas City's future plans. At left tackle, the Chiefs let veteran Donovan Smith walk after the 2023 season. Second year player Wanya Morris is slated to be the current starter, but Suamataia could step in and potentially battle for the spot. The right side could also be improved, but it is more of a long term proposition than an immediate one. In 2023, the Chiefs' starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor was penalized 20 times (most in the league) and surrendered 5 sacks. He's been a big disappointment since signing a 4 year, $80 million contract. Kansas City can bring in Suamataia to push Taylor into improving his play or eventually taking over his starting role. Corner and wide receiver are also positions to look at, but I think the Chiefs feel good about the options they have at those spots and will add pieces to those groups in later rounds.